Rising Costs of US Air Force Nuclear Missile Replacement Program

The cost of the Air Force’s program to replace aging nuclear missiles has surged to about $160 billion from $95.8 billion. This sharp increase threatens to reduce funding for other essential modernisation plans.

Sentinel ICBM Program by Northrop Grumman

The program, now called the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, is managed by Northrop Grumman Corp. It aims to replace the outdated Minuteman III missiles. The latest price tag shows an increase of around $65 billion since the 2020 estimate. This may force the Pentagon to adjust the project’s scope or timeline.

Cost Estimate and Industry Response

A U.S. official, an industry executive, and a congressional aide have confirmed the new cost estimate. Bloomberg reported the updated price tag as around $141 billion, noting the Pentagon’s consideration of construction and schedule changes. Northrop Grumman and the Pentagon have yet to comment on the exact figures, though the Pentagon is expected to provide a new estimate soon.

Impact on Other Defence Programs

The Sentinel program’s escalating costs have overshadowed the Air Force’s previous estimate of “at least” $131 billion. This has triggered the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which mandates the Pentagon to justify programs with significant cost increases to Congress. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is anticipated to address this issue next week.

Despite the Air Force’s insistence on Sentinel’s importance for maintaining America’s nuclear deterrent, the Pentagon has requested industry cost estimates for extending the service life of the existing Minuteman III missiles. Rising costs are also pressuring other Air Force priorities, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter jet program, hypersonic weapons development, the B-21 bomber, and various space initiatives.