Bitcoin Hits Three-Month High as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US Election
Bitcoin reached its highest value in three months during early trading in Asia on Monday. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to rise, as global markets braced for the upcoming US presidential election in two weeks.
Trump’s Election Prospects Boost Dollar and Bitcoin
As polls increasingly suggest a potential win for former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November 5 election, the US dollar has seen a boost. Trump’s proposed policies on tariffs and taxes are anticipated to keep US interest rates elevated, which could weaken the currencies of America’s trading partners.
Bitcoin has also benefited from Trump’s rising prospects, with his administration viewed as being less strict on cryptocurrency regulations. The digital currency was up 0.8% at $69,400, marking an 18% increase since October 10.
Currency Markets React to US Election and Economic Data
Currency movements in major markets last week were largely influenced by a dovish rate cut from the European Central Bank and strong US economic data. These factors have delayed expectations for significant reductions in US interest rates, especially if Trump wins the election.
The Japanese yen weakened by 0.1%, reaching 149.32 per US dollar. Last week, it briefly fell beyond 150 per dollar for the first time since early August. The dollar index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, stood at 103.45. Although it dipped 0.3% on Friday following China’s announcement of new economic stimulus measures, the index recorded a 0.55% gain over the week.
Other major currencies saw minimal movement, with the euro holding steady at $1.0866 and the British pound trading flat around $1.3045.
Market Focus Shifts to US Election Risks
With no major economic announcements expected this week, investors are turning their attention to corporate earnings and the looming US election. Some market participants are anticipating a rise in the costs of hedging against risks related to the dollar and other portfolios.
Chris Weston, head of research at Australian online broker Pepperstone, noted that with just 15 days remaining before the election, traders need to decide whether to commit to election-related trades. He highlighted that being long on the US dollar versus the euro, Swiss franc, and Mexican peso is a clear way to hedge against Trump’s tariff risks.
Similarly, Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, emphasised that rising real interest rates are supporting the dollar, particularly against the euro, franc, and peso. He expects this trend to persist through the election and potentially beyond if Trump secures a victory.