ESA Monitors Potential Earth-Bound Asteroid
The European Space Agency (ESA) is closely tracking an asteroid with a small chance of impacting Earth in 2032. Named Asteroid 2024 YR4, the space rock has a 98.8% probability of passing safely but remains under observation as a potential risk.
Tracking the Asteroid’s Path
First identified as a threat in December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth. However, it will return in 2028, allowing astronomers to refine their calculations.
ESA estimates the asteroid’s size to be between 40 to 90 metres (131 to 295 feet), travelling at a speed 17.3 km per second—about 15 times the velocity of a high-speed bullet. If it were to impact Earth, it could release energy between 5 to 50 megatons, equivalent to a nuclear explosion.
Probabilities and Potential Response
As of January 29, 2025, ESA calculates a 1.2% chance of impact on December 22, 2032. Juan Luis Cano of ESA’s Planetary Defence Office remains optimistic, stating that by April 2025, the risk level is expected to drop below concern.
However, if the probability remains above 1%, scientists will consider intervention strategies. One option includes deflecting the asteroid with a spacecraft, similar to NASA’s DART mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory in 2022.
Next Steps in Monitoring
Astronomers worldwide are collecting new data to refine the asteroid’s path. If uncertainties persist, the asteroid’s 2028 return will be crucial in determining whether Earth is at risk. By then, scientists will be able to confirm if the impact risk is either 0% or 100%, according to ESA.
with inputs from Reuters
