Drifting SpaceX Rocket Set for Accidental Collision With the Moon
A drifting SpaceX rocket stage is expected to collide with the Moon after spending more than a year in space following the launch of two lunar landers.
The rocket’s upper stage is forecast to strike the lunar surface on Wednesday, creating a crater and ejecting a plume of dust and debris. Scientists and amateur astronomers are preparing to observe the impact, which is expected to provide valuable data on how collisions affect the Moon’s surface.
Rocket Expected to Strike Near Einstein Crater
According to space tracking expert Bill Gray, the rocket stage is predicted to hit the Moon at approximately 5,400 mph (8,700 km/h), around seven times the speed of sound.
The impact is expected to occur near Einstein Crater on the Moon’s sunlit western limb. Observers in the eastern United States, Canada and much of South America are expected to have the best opportunity to monitor the aftermath because of the timing of the event.
Although the collision was not planned, experts say it could have been avoided if the upper stage had been redirected into an orbit around the Sun after completing its mission.
Growing Focus on Space Debris
Scientists are not overly concerned about the specific impact, but they say the incident highlights the increasing amount of space debris accumulating in Earth orbit and beyond.
Bill Gray noted that space is becoming increasingly crowded as more rockets and satellites are launched.
This will be the second known accidental collision of a discarded rocket with the Moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket segment struck the lunar far side, leaving behind a pair of craters.
The upcoming impact is expected to occur on the Moon’s near side and release energy equivalent to roughly three tonnes of TNT.
Scientists Hope to Learn From the Impact
Researchers believe the brief flash created by the collision will probably be too faint to observe from Earth. However, the cloud of dust and rock ejected by the impact could extend several miles into space and remain visible through telescopes for tens of minutes.
Benjamin Fernando of Los Alamos National Laboratory said the Moon’s weak gravity and lack of atmosphere allow dust to remain suspended for longer, making the event particularly valuable for scientific observation.
He explained that studying the impact could improve understanding of the risks posed by debris strikes to future astronauts operating on the lunar surface.
Fernando estimates the collision will create a crater measuring approximately 90 feet (27 metres) across and around 16 feet (5 metres) deep. While too small to be seen from Earth, the crater should be visible to spacecraft orbiting the Moon.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are expected to capture images of the impact site before and after the collision, helping scientists assess the effects of the strike in greater detail.